Cut and paste number from Angus Reid has much better news for our Canada.
http://www.visioncritical.com/2009/12/conservative-lead-narrows-as-liberals-bounce-back/
Conservative Lead Narrows as Liberals Bounce Back
Published on Dec 14 - 2009
Grit and NDP supporters are open to establishing a formal agreement to form a coalition government, if the opportunity arises.
The governing Conservative Party is still leading in Canada, but the Liberal Party has gained support, according to the Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Public Opinion in partnership with the Toronto Star.
The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,000 adults also shows that some Liberal and New Democratic Party (NDP) voters express varying levels of support to three scenarios geared at creating a “unite the left” movement in Canada.
Voting Intention
Across the country, 36 per cent of decided voters (-2 since mid-November) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today.
The Liberals have clearly made gains and now stand at 29 per cent (+6), above the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 16 per cent (-1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent (=), and the Green Party with six per cent (-4).
Regional Breakdowns
In a trend that was consistent throughout the year, a majority of decided voters in Alberta (55%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (54%) voice support for the Tories. In British Columbia, the governing party remains on top (42%), with the NDP (26%) barely ahead of the Liberals (23%).
In Ontario, 41 per cent of decided voters would vote for the Conservatives, but the Liberals (34%) have narrowed the gap from 14 points in mid-November to seven points this time around. In Quebec, the Bloc is steady at the top (42%) but the Liberals (25%) are now leading the Tories (17%).
Approval
Stephen Harper’s approval rating is 32 per cent (-2), while NDP leader Jack Layton gained five points since mid-November and is at 29 per cent. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff gained three points (15%), but remains well behind his two main rivals.
Momentum
Ignatieff’s momentum score, while better than last month’s, is still the worst of all three party leaders at -33 (7% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Liberal leader over the past month, while 40% say their views have worsened). Layton improved from -10 in mid-November to -6 this month. Harper had the toughest month, going from -9 to -24.
The Economy
Almost half of Canadians (49%, -4) are satisfied with the reaction of the federal government to the economic crisis, while 44 per cent (+6) are dissatisfied. Quebec is the only region where a majority of respondents (57%) disapprove of the way the federal government has dealt with the crisis.
Two-in-five Canadians (43%) either completely or moderately trust Harper to do the right thing to help the economy recover, while 27 per cent feel the same way about Ignatieff. The Liberal leader gained six points on this particular indicator. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, is trusted by 46 per cent of Canadians, although 28 per cent are undecided.
“Unite the Left”
Six years ago, Canada’s main right-leaning parties—the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives—achieved a full merger and became the Conservative Party. This month, respondents were provided with three options that deal with the possibility of the Liberals and the NDP working together.
One third of Canadians (33%) support a full merger between the Liberals and the NDP. This idea is backed by 50 per cent of Liberal voters and 50 per cent of NDP supporters.
A slightly larger proportion of Canadians (35%) would welcome an agreement between the Liberals and NDP to only run candidates from one of the two parties in ridings where vote splitting occurs. This idea is supported by 55 per cent of Liberal voters and 51 per cent of NDP supporters.
Still, the most popular plan is a formal agreement between the two parties to share power in a coalition government, if the opportunity arises. Two-in-five Canadians (42%) support this notion, including 64 per cent of Liberal voters and 70 per cent of NDP supporters.
The formal agreement towards a coalition government is also popular with Bloc Québécois voters (54%) but is rejected by a majority of Green voters (51%) and Conservative voters (76%).
Analysis
This edition of the Canadian Political Pulse shows a bounce in Liberal support, suggesting that the party may have hit rock bottom last month. The Conservatives remain well ahead nationally, but their double-digit lead in Ontario has dwindled. The NDP and the Bloc are steady, and the Greens have lost a few points.
Stephen Harper closes the year with a higher approval rating than his main rival, Michael Ignatieff, but Jack Layton was the biggest winner on momentum this time around.
The three proposals to establish a “unite the left” movement are attractive to some Grit and NDP voters, but it is the idea of formal agreement towards a coalition that holds the highest level of support.
Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)
What is really amazing is that 24% of Conservative supporters (almost a full 1/4) like the idea of a Liberal NDP merger. Are these the "soft" Con supporters, who could be convinced that they have a voting option?
ReplyDeleteSeems there is a solid chunk of a quarter of those who voted for the Connies who would look to the Liberals (most likely) as a second option for their votes. This makes sense, when one considers "swing" voters as they occur in elections...